PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:USA Basketball's Grant Hill has rough edges to smooth before 2028 Olympics

PARIS – With another Olympic gold medal for the U.S. men’s basketball team at the Paris Olympics,PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center attention turns to the 2028 Los Angeles Games for USA Basketball.

On the men’s side, sandpaper is required to smooth rough edges that linger on the periphery of gold – from Jaylen Brown’s pointed comments about his exclusion from the Olympic team to Jayson Tatum’s "did not play – coach’s decision" in the two games against Serbia to roster construction and coaching staff that will give the U.S. a shot at a sixth consecutive gold medal as the other countries close in on U.S. supremacy.

USA Basketball men’s national team managing director Grant Hill has work to do.

Whether Brown and Tatum are candidates for the 2028 team doesn’t matter. Players pay attention to those scenarios, especially Tatum’s situation. When a player is considered one of the best in the world and doesn’t get minutes in important Olympic games, it doesn’t exactly make players want to give up summers.

Tatum handled it like a pro. He acknowledged his disappointment in not playing in those games while understanding the greater good. He said all the right things, and major props to him for that. He prevented an issue from growing into a larger problem and kept an open mind about playing again in 2028.

2024 Paris Olympics: Follow USA TODAY’s coverage of the biggest names and stories of the Games.

U.S. coach Steve Kerr’s job was to win gold. Fair or not in this era of global basketball, anything short of a gold medal for the U.S. is still a disappointment. Kerr did his job. The U.S. defeated France for its fifth consecutive gold medal and the gold standard of basketball still belongs to the Americans.

Kerr’s decision to sit Tatum in both games against Serbia – once in group play, once in the semifinals – generated a problem. How can a first-team All-NBA player who is coming off a championship in June not get playing time in the Olympics?

Four generations of players criticized Kerr – from Bob Cousy to Charles Barkley to Paul Pierce to Draymond Green. Even Kerr struggled with the idea of not playing Tatum, and the story took on a mini-life of its own as the U.S. sought gold.

Kerr called it a math problem. There were only so many minutes to distribute, and in a close game, he couldn’t afford to play 10, 11 guys. It’s obvious Kerr liked Devin Booker, and at times, Anthony Edwards, on the court more than he did Tatum. Kerr didn’t go deep into his reasoning, but it’s not like Tatum tore it up in the minutes he received. And Booker was outstanding. LeBron James, Steph Curry and Kevin Durant received the headlines, but Booker’s two-way play was necessary.

There were times, especially in the semifinals against Serbia, when Kerr could’ve given minutes to Tatum instead of Edwards who wasn’t at his best in the semifinals and final.

Now, imagine if Kerr played everybody as equally as possible and didn’t win gold. Imagine the outcry then.

And winning gold in Los Angeles will be more difficult than it was in Paris. It’s not that the U.S. will lack talent – it will have the most talented 12-man roster in the 12-team field. It’s the continuity and experience of playing together that the U.S. will lack.

Teams such as Serbia, Germany, France and Australia will get a majority of their players to commit to several international events over the next four years, including the 2027 FIBA World Cup. USA Basketball is not getting a similar commitment because most American NBA stars are not giving up two summers in a row, especially if some play deep into the playoffs, for international basketball.

Whether intentional or not on behalf of FIBA, putting the World Cup one year ahead of the Olympics helps level the field.

That means the U.S. will assemble a team that hasn't played together, train for a week, play four or five exhibition games before the 2028 Los Angeles Summer Games and then try to win gold. That’s the predicament the U.S. men face. Since revamping the national team ahead of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, talent has ruled the day for the U.S. And it did in Paris ked by James, Curry and Durant.

But one of these Olympics, the U.S. will not win gold. And when it happens, the result shouldn’t be surprising.

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